注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

宁老师留学DIY咨询

MBA及Master申请PS/Essay/简历/推荐信写作咨询人

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我

2009年7月份,我给一个老朋友(Simon FT-MBA,2010春季班)为申请MBA而写的Essay提了几点比较关键的修改建议。后来,她成功拿到Simon的Offer。再后来,她建议我做留学DIY咨询方面的工作,并向我介绍了我的第一个客户。最终,我的第一个客户也成功拿到几个TOP16商学院的面试并顺利拿到Duke Fuqua商学院MBA的录取。 本人毕业于上海复旦大学管理学院国际企业管理系,属于商科科班出身并且做过管理工作、有领导经验的人士。

网易考拉推荐
 
 

INSEAD选读:How Disruptive Will Automation Be?  

2017-05-07 02:46:08|  分类: 领导力与管理学 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

INSEAD选读:How Disruptive Will Automation Be?

 

 

Annet Aris, INSEAD Adjunct Professor of Strategy | May 4, 2017

 

 

The speed of change will determine how disruptive automation is to the future of work and society.

How is your leadership preparing for the future of work? Will digitisation lead to more work or less? Of course we live and work in the digital age but the change we’ve experienced so far is only the tip of the iceberg.

The potential impact of digitisation on employment not only concerns the explosive growth of intelligent robots, but also the significant influence that machine learning and artificial intelligence will have on our work. There is a strong, lively debate about the speed at which current jobs are disappearing and to what extent digital productivity growth will indeed lead to new jobs.

Experts have varied positions on what will happen to the size of the workforce, the timeline for change and the skills needed in the workplace of the future. They agree on one thing – the nature of work at all levels will change dramatically.

Expanding or contracting

Manual labour, such as that performed by drivers and mechanics, is decreasing due to the advent of autonomous vehicles and robots. Administrative and customer service jobs are declining due to self-learning algorithms. And highly qualified careers in law and medicine, for example, are changing due to artificial intelligence.

The optimist believes that, similar to the first Industrial Revolution, higher labour productivity will increase the demand for work. The pessimist says that there will be less work, because the fruits of productivity growth will only benefit a small group. There will be a surplus in the supply of labour and wages will drop, negatively affecting consumption and growth. Which side is right?

Optimists on the future of work primarily base their opinion on the classic macro-economic thinking that digitisation will lead to greater productivity and therefore economic growth. This growth will in turn lead to more employment opportunities, but the type of jobs is still unknown.

A Boston Consulting Group study analysed how digitisation will influence the industrial employment opportunities in Germany. This report examined the effects of the digital world on ten important industrial processes and the extent to which productivity will be increased. In their most likely scenario, digitisation would lead to a 5 percent increase in employment growth for the 23 analysed industries in 2025, despite the nature of the work changing dramatically.

Pessimistic predictions come from scientists and futurologists such as Silicon Valley entrepreneur Martin Ford in The Rise of the Robots, as well as MIT’s Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson in The Second Machine Age. Their argument is that labour productivity will certainly increase, but only a very small group of people will profit from this: those who have capital goods, but primarily those who control the data, algorithms and intellectual rights. Working people will barely benefit so consumption will not grow and there is even a threat of deflation.

Quickly or slowly

One element that has received little attention regarding the future of work until recently is the speed at which these changes will take place.

The slower the change, the more time people will have to adjust their skills and present new ideas for work. A slow change reduces the risk of a surplus of job seekers. Data about ageing leads experts to believe that, in the coming decades, we will need an average 1 percent of productivity growth each year to compensate for the loss in the amount of employed people. With slow productivity growth, the labour force remains rather scarce and therefore fairly paid.

Another view on the speed of change looks primarily at the exponential increase in computing power. It concludes that the impact of robots and artificial intelligence on labour will proceed at the same incredibly rapid pace.

The McKinsey Global Institute recently published “A future that works: automation, employment and productivity”. This in-depth study contains detailed analyses of the technologies that can replace or improve human skills, and how they will impact various professional groups. It also looks at the factors that will influence the speed and level of automation. According to the report, currently known digital developments alone will cause that for at least 60 percent of jobs, 30 percent or more of the activities in those jobs will be automated. The speed of this replacement is not only dependent on technical feasibility. It is also influenced by the cost of developing and introducing applications. Economic benefits of innovation, such as savings on labour costs, as well as regulatory and social barriers, will play a part as well.

In the fastest change scenario of the study, the greatest development of technological automation will happen between 2025 and 2030, but wide adoption of these new working methods will most likely occur between 2030 and 2050. Economic, organisational and social factors more or less double the time needed to implement the technology. Full implementation of automation is predicted to take decades, according to this report. Yet those who foresee job losses believe in a much quicker pace of change. 

Lessons for future work

As with any study of the future, we cannot know any outcome for sure. The challenge for policy makers and business leaders is therefore to develop scenarios and formulate the best proactive policy, allowing for gradual or fast adoption of digitisation in the workplace. In both cases, the main challenges are to take care that 1) the benefits of digital productivity growth are fairly shared, 2) the transition is managed as smoothly as possible and 3) useful new work is created. Different strategies, however, are needed for each scenario.

In the case of gradual transition, the emphasis must primarily be on retraining, the advancement of entrepreneurship and the prevention of imbalance of power. In the coming years nearly everyone will have to learn essentially new skills. This will not only be a question of where to find financial resources, but also of expertise. Teachers who can impart these skills need to be trained and new learning material will need to be created. In addition, digitisation of the workplace makes entrepreneurship more important, so that new work can compensate for the automated activities. Finally, in the digital world, the risk is that the bulk of data and artificial intelligence will end up in the hands of only one or two players. It will be up to the policy makers to prevent these players from gaining a disproportionate market share and profits.

For a fast transition, retraining and entrepreneurship will not be sufficient in response to the flood of released labour. Additional safety nets will have to be created to prevent social disquiet; protections which will not only assure people of a subsistence income, but will also allow them to maintain their dignity. Whether a basic income or another model works best for this must quickly be researched with the help of experiments so that, if required, the plans can be activated immediately. These incentives must be international because emerging economies may be the most severely affected by digital automation. The funding for these incentives could be provided by those who benefit from monopolies in the digital economy.

The coming years will be truly exciting. It will be necessary to take important strategic decisions which will determine the future of work, all in the face of uncertainty. It will be more important than ever for leaders to be open-minded and proactive rather than fall into a dogmatic battle of principles.

Annet Aris is an Adjunct Professor of Strategy at INSEAD. She is also a board member of Thomas Cook PLC in London, ASML Holding N.V. in Veldhoven, ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE in Munich, ASR Nederland N.V. in Utrecht and Jungheinrich AG in Hamburg.

Annet was named one of the 50 most inspirational women in the European technology sector for 2016 by Inspiring Fifty.


Read more at http://knowledge.insead.edu/blog/insead-blog/how-disruptive-will-automation-be-6006#ViKC0iHjWYClgSQq.99

 

 

以上内容摘自:

http://knowledge.insead.edu/blog/insead-blog/how-disruptive-will-automation-be-6006

 

 

宁老师(Coach Ning)联系方式:

QQ906866938

微信:可通过qq号加宁老师微信

微信公众号:宁老师DIY留学咨询

SKYPEessay-ningchunlong

LinkedIn账号:http://cn.linkedin.com/pub/chunlong-ning/30/28/409

新浪微博:http://weibo.com/ningchunlong

网易博客:http://ningchunlong.blog.163.com/

腾讯博客:http://user.qzone.qq.com/906866938/2

宁老师(Coach NingDIY留学咨询服务说明与收费标准(2016-2017

http://ningchunlong.blog.163.com/blog/static/1153712692016461220967

http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MDU3MzYxOA==&mid=504022883&idx=1&sn=bb813d21e4565b2911bb7e6cdbc9a07d#rd

(注:上述两个服务说明的链接,若一个无法打开请点击另一个)

宁老师Coach Ning部分MBA或者Master咨询成功案例介绍

http://ningchunlong.blog.163.com/blog/#m=0&t=1&c=fks_087069080082082074081082086095085087084064083087084069093

 

 

DIY留学申请交流QQ群:

MBA申请DIY群:137254413

Master申请DIY群:162474877

MSF/MFE申请DIY 群:27769133

HRM申请DIY群:122368914

MKT申请DIY群:228695973

MSA/Macc申请DIY群:234137969

法律LL.M申请DIY群:110533381

英国及欧洲申请DIY群:209994593

HK申请DIY群:247226867

Canada申请DIY群:255130861

新加坡香港MSF申请DIY群:82449369

MBAMaster申请差别很大请正确选择要加入的群

  评论这张
 
阅读(6)| 评论(0)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

在LOFTER的更多文章

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017